It is only January, but already it is clear that 2009 will be an important year for those of us working to stabilize our climate and put the world on a more sustainable path.
We do not know yet whether the international community will be able to reach an agreement on a post-Kyoto global climate accord at the United Nations COP 15 climate change conference in Copenhagen in December, though we continue to hope that it will. But one thing is certain, there will be no chance of an agreement in Copenhagen unless China and the United States agree between them that they need to address climate change in a coordinated manner.
These are the world's two biggest emitters of carbon dioxide, and though they may be poles apart politically, their “climate profiles” are similar. The US and China are the biggest users of coal and biggest polluters. As consumers of vast amounts of energy, both have an interest – economically and environmentally – in working for the development of clean energy and energy-efficient technologies.
It is true, too, that there are significant differences between the two, but these only highlight the importance of engaging them to achieve a global low-carbon economy. China's population is four times that of the US but its annual energy use is about two-thirds of America's. Historically, the US has produced more carbon than China, but if China fails to adopt clean energy technologies, and the fairly understandable aspirations of its people cause it to consume fossil-fuel dependent energy at the rate of Americans, then the climate battle is lost.
Currently, about 70 percent of China's energy is used by industry, and only about 10 percent as fuel for its transportation needs. An American is thought to be about 20 times more likely to own a car than a Chinese person (though car ownership grows daily in China), and the US uses much of its energy in transportation and its buildings as well as industry.
But what is not in conflict is the need for both countries to vigorously pursue energy and resource efficiencies, and the development and deployment of the low-carbon technologies that will help them achieve these. The economic well-being and energy security of these two nations will depend on this.
These pursuits will require investment and innovation, and it is here that business can play a role. Technologies are generally conceived, developed, deployed and later bought and sold by business, not countries, so engagement with business will be crucial for both nations.
Through my work as co-chair of the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development ‘s Low Carbon Economy Task Force and elsewhere, I am aware that the Chinese government has already made significant efforts to reduce its carbon emissions. Its 11 th Five-Year Plan contains policies to reduce the country's contribution to climate change, including one to cut energy intensity – the amount of energy used per unit of economic output - by 20 percent by 2010. As well, many of its new power plants are being built with provision for the later addition of carbon-capture facilities and low-carbon cities are being built at Dongtan and Baoding.
In the US, this month's leadership change offers great opportunities. Incoming president Barack Obama has already said he intends for the US to take its place in the international arena on climate, and there are media reports that he plans prompt engagement with China on energy and the environment. This cannot come too soon. And some US states, for instance California, are already taking steps to mitigate climate change.
All of this does not negate the need for the rest of the world to work hard to find climate solutions. But, however 2009 unfolds, the spotlight is sure to fall on US and Chinese efforts. The success, or failure, of these will have a lasting impact upon us all.
I agree that the United States need to take a lead role in curbing emissions. Not only are they a major pollutor, but they are world opinion leaders. I think that if they started, the world would follow...
Posted by: Ina | February 19, 2009 at 07:21 PM